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How Important Are Statistics?

By Arlene F. Harder, MA, MFT

Do You Want to Know How Long You are Likely to Live?

When someone has cancer (as well as when a person has another serious illness), there are patients and families who want to be given a "time frame" for life expectancy to guide them in planning their future. This is not an unreasonable request because it is possible to both "prepare to die" and "plan to live."

Unfortunately, at the end of three months, or six months, or whenever the patient thinks he is "supposed" to die, he will too often accommodate the doctor by dying on schedule.

Further, once the date has been set, some people believe genuine living isn't possible because they have an "appointment" with death. They equate advanced cancer (and sometimes even early stage cancer) as a "terminal" illness, believing they are "dying." But what exactly does it mean to be "terminal?" What does it mean to be "dying"? And if one even dares talk about dying, a topic that is often taboo—or even worse, if a person makes plans for it—does that mean the person is without hope or optimism?

Yet just as some want to know their odds, others don't want to hear a prognosis because they know that many patients have made liars out of their doctors. They would rather go about their business as though they will live a long and full life. Consequently, they enjoy each day to the greatest extent possible, which is, of course, possible even for someone who has been told their odds are not favorable.

How Do You Interpret Statistics?

If you were told there is a 90% chance that you won't survive more than a year or so with the stage of cancer you have, do you assume you will be one of those in the majority—or one in the 10% category? Believing you will survive doesn't mean you have "false hope." It means that you would agree with Norman Cousins, who told those with cancer:

"Don't deny the diagnosis; try to defy the verdict."

Let's say you've not been given a lot of hope. Can you "beat the odds?" Yes. But what does it generally take to survive when "statistics" aren't encouraging? Good medical treatment? Almost assuredly. Luck? Yes, some of that. AND it doesn't hurt to know that many long-term survivors.

Didn't take no for an answer

Actively sought out information on where they could get help

Sought out other people who had cancer and recovered

Formed constructive partnerships with health professionals

Didn't hesitate to make major changes in their lives

Saw their disease as forcing them into a new way of living

Cultivated an attitude of self acceptance

An Essay on Cancer and Statistics by Stephen Gould

Especially if you are concerned about your prognosis, I recommend you read an excellent article by Stephen Gould, The Median Isn't the Message, which appears on Steve Dunn's CancerGuide and is preceded by this statement:

"Stephen Jay Gould is an influential evolutionary biologist who teaches at Harvard University. He is the author of at least ten popular books on evolution, and science, including, among others, The Flamingo's Smile, The Mismeasure of Man, and Wonderful Life."

"As far as I'm concerned, Gould's The Median Isn't the Message is the wisest, most humane thing ever written about cancer and statistics. It is the antidote both to those who say that, "the statistics don't matter," and to those who have the unfortunate habit of pronouncing death sentences on patients who face a difficult prognosis. Anyone who researches the medical literature will confront the statistics for their disease. Anyone who reads this will be armed with reason and with hope. . . . "

A Note for the Family and Loved Ones of People with Cancer

When it appears that there is no reasonable hope for recovery, it is natural to want to keep our loved ones around us as long as possible, if only to avoid having to go through the grief of losing them. Consequently, families frequently become determined that the patient must try ANY new treatment that comes along, whether conventional or alternative—no matter how little time would be gained and no matter what side effects might accompany treatment.

If you are a patient, you may be fortunate to have a family that has given you their blessings to follow whatever treatment—or non-treatment—you would like to pursue. If you are the caregiver or family member of a loved one with chronic and/or serious illness, we strongly encourage you to help that person decide what would most fit them. And while your preferences may be taken into consideration, remember that it is their life and their physical comfort or discomfort that is at stake.

Talking about death and dying is one of the hardest things people can do. It's also one of the most loving, because it allows us to finish what we want to say, to ask forgiveness for our transgressions against another, and to accept forgiveness for what we have done. It gives us a chance to acknowledge how much the other person has meant to us and to give comfort and care without pressuring the person who is sick to rally for our sake.

What About Hope?

But, you ask, isn't there always hope? Of course, one can always believe they will recover, though none of us lives forever, at least not on this earth. Some articles that can help you understand more about the role of hope in recover are Just How Much Control Does Your Mind Have?, The Nature and Complexity of Hope, and Supporting Hope.

© Copyright 2002, Arlene F. Harder, MA, MFT